Research
除非这种情况在市场准入阶段得到适当管理, 如今LEO的人口分布方式对创新构成了威胁, 增长机会, 有效利用频谱, 国家利益, space safety, 还有环境.
确保新太空时代的创新和增长机会 (2024)
Recurring misrepresentations are being made that LEO orbits between 500 km and 600 km in altitude are intrinsically “self-cleaning”, 卫星在这些轨道上的碰撞是无关紧要的. That is wrong. LEO satellite collisions at these altitudes have consequences that persist for decades and threaten all LEO orbits.
在低轨道上发展的拥堵显著增加了碰撞的风险, 以及对每个人进入太空的长期影响. 我们不必接受这些后果. 创新的新系统可以提供更好的服务, 确保空间的可持续性, 允许所有国家在新太空经济中竞争.
Large constellation operators can reduce the risk of a Kessler Syndrome by deploying smaller satellites, 或者在较低的轨道上部署更大的卫星.
Mark A. Sturza & 杰玛·苏拉·卡雷特罗, 环境友好型低轨道宽带卫星系统的设计行业, 2021先进毛伊岛光学和空间监视技术会议(AMOS)
Smaller, less massive, satellites in lower orbits may be the key to sustainable LEO constellations.
Deorbiting satellites will be tracked and operational satellites can maneuver to avoid close conjunctions. However, 这取决于运营商之间的持续沟通和合作, 目前哪些是临时的和自愿的.
公共卫星目录并不包含所有的碎片物体, 因为它包括很少的物体小于10厘米. Yet it is commonly understood that objects that are 1 cm or larger in size can be lethal to a spacecraft if the two collide.
The operation of large numbers of LEO satellites in mega-constellations significantly raises the risk of collisions in space.
在这样的轨道密度下, 根据多重建模努力, 这不是一个报废卫星是否会与碎片相撞的问题, but when.
One of the major challenges with space is that poor debris mitigation practices can quickly affect all space operators.
佐尔格,Ailor & Muelhaupt. 太空交通管理:大星座的挑战, 轨道碎片, 以及太空作战的快速变化.空间政策和战略中心/航空航天公司.
如果目前的卫星互联网提案成为现实, about 50,10年内，将有1万颗活跃卫星在地球上空运行. 即使最雄心勃勃的计划没有实现, 这些卫星将以前所未有的规模制造和发射.
达尼克，克林霍弗，马里茨， & Wiseman. “大型LEO卫星星座:这次会有所不同吗?” McKinsey & Company
When calculations are performed looking for potential conjunctions (intersecting error ellipsoids) so many “potential” collisions are identified that they are routinely ignored. 在重大事故发生之前纠正这种状况是至关重要的.
A recent ASAT test has focused attention and discussion on the consequences of space debris at LEO and the fragility of near-earth orbits. This paper compares the aftermath of an accidental satellite collision to that of a successful ASAT test. 结果是无法区分的.
Policy
...NASA has concerns with the potential for a significant increase in the frequency of conjunction events and possible impacts to NASA's science and human spaceflight missions.
Further, the rise in orbital debris in space compromises valuable assets and threatens to make space inaccessible.
在过去十年中, two major satellite collisions dramatically increased the amount of fragmented debris currently in orbit.
Letter from U.S. 参议员科里·布克(新泽西州民主党人)和丹·沙利文(ak党共和党人)向联邦通信委员会主席阿吉特·派致信
在过去的二十年里，太空环境发生了很大的变化, but one thing is clear: congestion in space — especially the explosive growth in space debris — has created an increasingly dangerous environment for our astronauts and satellites in orbit.
委员会对轨道制度的了解至关重要, 运营商的决策基于这种理解, be shaped by an accurate measure of the risk of collision between objects in Earth orbit.
We believe that addressing orbital debris and the long-term sustainability of space will require a basket of multiple approaches. 没有什么灵丹妙药.
“Spacefaring nations must minimize the risks to people and property on Earth of re-entries of space objects and maximize transparency regarding those operations. It is clear that China is failing to meet responsible standards regarding their space debris. It is critical that China and all spacefaring nations and commercial entities act responsibly and transparently in space to ensure the safety, stability, security, 以及外层空间活动的长期可持续性.”
美国宇航局局长比尔·尼尔森的声明(5/8/21)
Media
Viasat执行主席马克·丹克伯格与吉姆·布里登斯廷坐在一起, 橡果成长公司高级顾问, Viasat董事会成员和前NASA局长讨论我们如何确保安全, 可持续进入空间.
整个夏天, SpaceX与绕地球运行的三颗星链失去了联系, leaving experts concerned over the potential for such satellite mega-constellations to add to dangerous orbiting space debris.
Now, Ekaterini Kavvada, 欧洲委员会国防工业和航天总局, 他警告说，这些太空垃圾“不是理论上的威胁，而是现实”。.
“但如果我们不在全球范围内解决太空垃圾危机, 而不是操作符1, “我们有可能忽视环境退化的情况,丹尼尔·奥尔特罗格说, 太空标准与创新中心主任...
太空变得越来越拥挤, and experts worry that we might one day face a catastrophic cascade of proliferating space debris, 这反过来又会摧毁卫星, 禁用GPS服务, and generally render space travel and global communications impossible for a generation.
“巨型星座产生了巨大的碰撞风险. We need more stringent rules for traffic management in space and international mechanisms to ensure enforcement of the rules.”
Financial Times: ‘Huge risk’ of space junk collisions as satellite launches intensify, experts warn
Viasat, 亚马逊和其他公司在很多方面都反对SpaceX的举动, 包括潜在的信号干扰, 对大气的环境影响和碰撞风险...
"It’s a race to the bottom in terms of getting as much stuff up there as possible to claim orbital real estate,森巴杰说, associate professor at the Department of Aerospace Engineering and Engineering Mechanics at the University of Texas at Austin.
Wall Street Journal: Elon Musk’s Satellite Internet Project Is Too Risky, Rivals Say
Today, 我们需要降低“太空碎片”——用过的火箭级——的风险, 可能损坏其他卫星的燃料箱和退役卫星, 宇宙飞船和未来的人类栖息地.
对于太空垃圾来说，影响是显而易见的.
“We face entirely new challenges as hundreds of satellites are launched every month now — more than we used to launch in a year,”...
Financial Times: ‘Huge risk’ of space junk collisions as satellite launches intensify, experts warn
Some researchers are livid because they fear these objects will disrupt astronomy research.
最坏的情况, in which satellite collisions create a runaway feedback loop of ever-greater amounts of space debris, 被称为凯斯勒综合症...
Removing from orbit existing large objects that could collide with one another would be a great start for governments.
近地轨道已经相当拥挤了. 正如马斯克自己所指出的那样, nearly 5,目前有000颗卫星簇拥在地球周围, 而单是星链就有望将这一数字翻三倍.
近地轨道已经相当拥挤了. 正如马斯克自己所指出的那样, nearly 5,目前有000颗卫星簇拥在地球周围, 而单是星链就有望将这一数字翻三倍.